The Minor Catagories
(not minor to the winners, obviously, but still...)
Film Editing
Nominees: 127 Hours... Black Swan... The Fighter... The King's Speech... The Social Network
I think this comes down to 127 Hours and The Social Network, but I tend to think its Facebook's night. Winner: The Social Network
Cinematography
Nominees: Black Swan... Inception... The King's Speech... The Social Network... True Grit
Because Inception was so much computer work, I think this knocks it out of contention. I think it comes to The Kings Speech and True Grit
Winner: The Kings Speech
Art Direction
Nominees: Alice in Wonderland... Harry Potter 7.1... Inception... The King's Speech... True Grit
Because I know little about this catagory, and for that matter, the two preceeding it here, its a crap shoot.
Winner: The King's Speech
Visual Effects
Nominees: Alice In Wonderland... Harry Potter 7.1... Hereafter... Inception... Iron Man 2
Yes, Alice might give Inception a run for its money... but no.
Winner: Inception
Sound Mixing
Nominees: Inception... The King's Speech... Salt... The Social Network... True Grit
Again, I have to give this to the loudest film around...
Winner: Inception
Sound Editing
Nominees: Inception... Toy Story 3... TRON: Legacy... True Grit... Unstoppable
As much as I'd love to see the Denzel Train movie get an Academy award, I'm predicting a techno sweep for Chris Nolan's sci-fi instant classic
Winner: Inception
Costume Design
Nominees: Alice in Wonderland... I Am Love... The King's Speech... Tempest... True Grit
I don't know what the heck I Am Love and Tempest even are... yes, I know, Tempest is a Shakespeare play, but I only vaguely know of a new movie from it. Really, I think it comes to Alice or Speech, though I wouldn't be surprised if True Grit picked this one up...
Winner: True Grit
Makeup
Nominees: Barney's Version... The Way Back... Wolfman
If its Rick Baker involved, and I think it is, then Wolfman easy
Winner: Wolfman
Live Action Short Film
Nominees: The Confession... The Crush... God of Love... Na Wewe... Wish 143
I have no clue. I always pick one, then find out another's subject is something like "a story of a man who is fighting global warming along with the injustices of Bush's senseless war", and then wish I'd picked that one to win (which it always does). So, who knows.
Winner: God of Love
Animated Short Film
Nominees: Day & Night... The Gruffalo... Let's Pollute... The Lost Thing... Madagascar, Carnet de Voyage
I want Day & Night to win this badly, because it was amazing. This was the short airing before Toy Story 3, and it was not only good in 2D, it was brilliant in 3D. But Let's Pollute sounds like a cautionary tail of how much we are ruining our planet, and by "we", I mean us Americans.
Winner: Let's Pollute
Documentary Short
Nominees: Killing in the Name... Poster Girl... Strangers No More... Sun Come Up... The Warriors of Qiugang
I'm torn between Killing in the Name and The Warriors of Qiugang... not that I know a single thing about either one of them, but they both sound just leftist enough that Hollywood would vote for them.
Winner: Killing in the Name
THE MID-GRADE CATAGORIES
(ie, not as big as Picture and Actor, but bigger than editing and sound)
Documentary Feature
Nominees: Exit Through the Gift Shop... Gasland... Inside Job... Restrepo... Waste Land
I wanted to go with "Exit Through the Gift Shop", because I have heard alot about this film, but that doesn't always translate into Oscar gold.
Winner: Restrepo
Original Score
Nominees: 127 Hours... How to Train Your Dragon... Inception... The King's Speech... The Social Network
As much as the music from Inception and Speech kept me captivated, and yeah, the Dragon music was cool, I think Trent Reznor picks up the win.
Winner: The Social Network
Original Song
Nominees: "If I Rise" from 127 Hours... "Coming Home" from Country Strong... "I See the Light" from Tangled... "We Belong Together" from Toy Story 3
I think Randy Newman would love to add another Oscar to his collection with his Toy Story 3 song, but the problem is, most people don't remember that song. With Toy Story, "Strange Things" and "You Got a Friend in Me" were instantly memorable, but this one, not so much. Of course, I would love to see "I See the Light" pick this up, but I'm afraid the two Disney songs will cancel each other out, much like 2007, when the injustice of seeing both of "Enchanted"'s songs defeated by "Falling Slowly" from that random Keri Russell film.
Winner: "Coming Home" from Country Strong
Foreign Language Film
Nominees: Biutiful (Mexico)... Dogtooth (Greece)... In a Better World (Denmark)... Incendies (Canada)... Outside the Law (Hors-la-Loi) (Algeria)
With all the hype surrounding Biutiful, I don't know how it doesn't pick this up. Not that I know anything about it, but Javier Bardem being nominated for Best Actor tells me its on the radar.
Winner: Biutiful from Mexico
The Big Ones
(these are the ones everyone wants to see)
Best Animated Feature
Toy Story 3. Doesn't matter who else is nominated.
Original Screenplay
Nominees: Another Year... The Fighter... Inception... The Kids are Alright... The Kings Speech
You know, I don't really care who wins this, but it would warm my heart if The Kids are Alright was shut out completely. Unfortunately, that won't happen. Read on.
Winner: The Kings Speech
Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: 127 Hours... The Social Network... Toy Story 3... True Grit... Winter's Bone
I'm going with the huge consensus here, a book that I hope that I can read soon
Winner: The Social Network
Supporting Actress
Nominees: Amy Adams, whom I'm in love with (The Fighter)... Helena Bonham Carter (The King's Speech)... Melissa Leo (The Fighter)... Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)... Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom)
This is a three way race, and probably one of the most unpredictable races tonight. Let's eliminate Jacki Weaver, she's a "its an honor to be nominated" nominee, and Helena Bonham Carter, because she was great, but she was a background character. The thought is that Hailee Steinfeld might pull an upset if Melissa Leo and Amy Adams, whom I'm in love with, split their vote for The Fighter. Truly, though, Hailee Steinfeld was amazing, especially for being like, 14. And really, she should have been up for Best Actress because she was in most of True Grit, and she was brilliant in it, but in Supporting Actress, she has a shot. However, my Hollywood girlfriend would be upset if I picked against her...
Winner: Amy Adams, whom I'm in love with
Supporting Actor
Nominees: Christian Bale (The Fighter)... John Hawkes (Winter's Bone)... Jeremy Renner (The Town)... Mark Ruffalo (The Kids are Alright)... Geoffrey Rush (The King's Speech)
Here's who might win... Mark Ruffalo, because he was pretty good in what is truly a big, fat gay movie that Hollywood loves. Or, Geoffrey Rush, because he was so good in The King's Speech, in a flawless performance. However, here's who should, and will, win...
Winner: Christian Bale
Director
Nominees: Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)... David O. Russell (The Fighter)... Tom Hooper (The King's Speech)... David Fincher (The Social Network)... The Coen Brothers (True Grit)
Aronofsky and The Coen Brothers won't win this. David O. Russell won't win this. Tom Hooper is too new to win this. That leaves...
Winner: David Fincher for The Social Network
Best Actress
Nominees: Annette Bening (The Kids are Alright)... Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole)... Jennifer Lawrence (Winter's Bone)... Natalie Portman (Black Swan)... Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine)
I cannot wait to see Blue Valentine, because the words I have heard about Michelle Williams are words like "devastating", "heartbreaking" and "crushing". Not a happy movie, but I would tend to think she probably is the Best Actress this year, even having not seen it. But, she won't win. Neither will Kidman or Lawrence, for their movies that are so little seen. This comes down to Natalie Portman and Annette Bening. Portman might win it, as she's the odds on favorite, but she might run into one problem: Annette Bening is one of those actresses that Hollywood feels like should have already won an Oscar. So, no matter the performance of Portman, it might fall prey to both a "My bad" from the Oscar community, giving her more of a lifetime award than a "good job this movie" prize, and a "We need to give this year's gay movie something, so this gets two birds with one stone". Personally, I thought The Kids are Alright was not alright, but if you are going to give this award to someone from that film, give it to Julianne Moore. She was better, and yet, not even nominated. Tragic.
Winner: Annette Bening
Best Actor
Nominees: Javier Bardem (Biutiful)... Jeff Bridges (True Grit)... Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network)... Colin Firth (The King's Speech)... James Franco (127 Hours)
Count out Bardem, Bridges and Franco right now. This is a two way race between Eisenberg and Firth, and I really think Colin Firth will win this. The sentiment might be that Eisenberg is just getting going, and he'll have other times, but Firth is respected and has been around a long time... but this won't be a lifetime achievement award as with Annette Bening, this is for a stellar performance. Plus, if Colin Firth loses this, The Lovely Steph Leann might be so angry she would throw a Wii-mote through the television. Bad times.
Winner: Colin Firth
Best Picture
Nominees: 127 Hours... Black Swan... The Fighter... Inception... The Kids are All Right... The King's Speech... The Social Network... Toy Story 3... True Grit... Winter's Bone
Let's cut this down fast.... the only movies that have a shot at this are Inception, The Kids are All Right, The Kings' Speech and The Social Network. It would be a pretty big upset, though if either Kids or Inception took home the prize, so its Speech or Facebook. The sentimental pick is Speech, because its an Oscar kind of movie... however, Social Network represents almost a "new era" of Hollywood, and could be ushering in the Oscars into modern times, something the Grammy's haven't figured out yet. Anyway, I wouldn't be upset with either one winning, but I'm giving the nod to...
Winner: The King's Speech