What's on the Chopping Block, and Who's Holding the Line (Or Not)

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi has promised that the House Democrats named to the committee prescribed by the debt ceiling plan and tasked with reducing the deficit by at least $1.2 trillion will oppose cuts to the social safety net:

"That is a priority for us," Pelosi said. "But let me say it is more than a priority - it is a value... it's an ethic for the American people. It is one that all of the members of our caucus share. So that I know that whoever's at that table will be someone who will fight to protect those benefits."

It is, of course, qualified good news, because this country is going to hell in a handbasket Pelosi is willing to support cuts "to provider payments, waste and other Medicare spending," which, as I've mentioned previously, can still affect Medicare beneficiaries when cutting payments to providers could leave them unable to find any providers willing to accept Medicare patients. Medicare's reimbursement schedule already routinely leaves providers underpaid, and rejections for Medicare patients have been steadily rising for more than a decade as a result.

And then there's this: "Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) will also appoint three members to the committee. And if even a single one of them is willing to cut into Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security benefits, then Pelosi's efforts won't really matter—the committee's report can be approved by a bare majority of its 12 members. But if Reid and Pelosi play this smart, they could create a sturdy firewall."

It is incredible and terrifying and infuriating to me that so few people, possibly as few as one, will hold in their hands the power to protect or dismantle the social safety net.

Whoooooooooops

Stock market tumbles again despite avoidance of U.S. default:

The Dow Jones industrial average slumped more than 265 points Tuesday as mounting concerns about the fragility of the U.S. economy weighed heavily on Wall Street. It was the Dow's eighth straight daily loss, its worst string since the depths of the global financial crisis in 2008.

Though relieved at Washington's ability to forge an eleventh-hour debt-ceiling plan that averted a feared default, investors are spooked by the notion that the government cutbacks called for in the debt plan could further weaken an already torpid economy.

"Investors are looking past the budget situation and realizing this is an austerity plan," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer of Harris Private Bank in Chicago. "We have an economy that's struggling to stay afloat and we don't have the ammunition to keep prodding it forward."

Emphasis mine.

Open Thread: Senate Debate & Vote on the Raw Deal

You can watch it live on C-SPAN here.

Discuss.

UPDATE: It passed, 74-26.

UPDATE 2: Obama is about to make a statement. You can watch live here.

Number of the Day

1.8 million: The potential number of jobs that will be lost in 2012 as a result of the debt ceiling agreement, according to the Economic Policy Institute.

In addition to the immediate cuts to spending, the debt ceiling agreement fails to continue two major policies which had been part of broad agreements in the past. The payroll tax holiday and extended unemployment insurance were passed last December along with the two-year extension of the Bush-era tax cuts; but are set to expire at the end of 2011. While Congress could still extend these policies between now and the end of the year, that scenario is looking much less likely today. (Any economic support subsequent to this deal would have to be offset by other tax increases or spending cuts in 2012 or a further increase in the debt ceiling, neither of which seems politically viable.)

...It should be noted that while the payroll holiday creates jobs, there are more effective ways to target tax policy to those most likely to spend the extra income, creating an even bigger bang-for-the-buck without some of the negative side-effects.

...If Congress fails to renew these existing programs or enact improved versions, we can expect slower growth, fewer jobs, and higher unemployment. Specifically, there could be 1.8 million fewer jobs and a 0.6 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate in 2012 as a result of abandoning current budget policies.

...Roughly one in three workers will be unemployed or underemployed in 2011 and there would be little progress on this front in 2012. This persistent high unemployment not only creates great economic distress for those families directly impacted but also undermines wage growth and continues the erosion of benefits of those still employed. Moreover, these high levels of unemployment make it more difficult to face our fiscal challenges over the long run.

And here's another number: 60% of respondents in the latest CNN poll disapprove of the debt deal failing to include tax hikes for the wealthiest Americans and corporations. Whooooooops!

Open Thread & News Round-Up: The Raw Deal

The Senate will vote on the Raw Deal today at noon eastern. In the meantime, here's the latest...

The Guardian—House of Representatives passes debt bill: "Enough Democrats and Republicans reluctantly joined forces to see the proposed legislation through, 269 votes to 161."

The Hill—Dems furious, see deal as GOP win:

House Democrats on Monday expressed outrage at the White House for how it handled the debt-ceiling negotiations, claiming the administration caved to the GOP and left them in the dark.

The irate lawmakers took exception to the lack of balance between cuts and revenues; they railed against the White House for excluding them from the process; and they accused President Obama of bowing to the demands of Republicans without putting up much of a fight.

"Our negotiators weren't tough enough," Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.) said Monday. "They didn't do the work."

...Not only did the agreement slash domestic spending while excluding new tax revenues, many Democrats ranted, but the White House left rank-and-file members in the dark through most of the talks.

...[Rep. Eliot Engel (D-N.Y.)] said most Democrats in the New York delegation had requested a meeting with the White House to discuss potential cuts in graduate medical education.

"We couldn't get a meeting," he said.

When the deal was reached Sunday, Engel continued, the White House "didn't bother" to contact House Democrats.

"We all heard that there was this deal through the media," he said.

CBS—Boehner: I got 98 percent of what I wanted: "When you look at this final agreement that we came to with the white House, I got 98 percent of what I wanted. I'm pretty happy."

LA Times—Biden denies likening Republicans to terrorists in debt talks:

"I did not use the terrorism word," he told "CBS Evening News" anchor Scott Pelley. "What happened was there were some people who said they felt like they were being held hostage by terrorists. I never said that they were terrorists or weren't terrorists, I just let them vent."

Too bad. Because we could really use someone in his position to speak that truth.

The coverage of this debacle abroad has been interesting, to say the least. Two of my favorites today: In Der Spiegel, they're running an interview with "Tea Party Co-Founder Mark Meckler," who is a garbage nightmare, and in The Telegraph, under the awesome headline "The real story of the US debt deal is not the triumph of the Tea Party but the death of the Socialist Left," Toby Young says: "To focus on the Tea Party is to ignore the tectonic political shift that's taken place, not just in America but across Europe. The majority of citizens in nearly all the world's most developed countries simply aren't prepared to tolerate the degree of borrowing required to sustain generous welfare programmes any longer."

Which puts me in mind of that great Edwin Starr classic, "Empathy! Huh! Yeah! What is it good for? Absolutely nothing!" Sob.

Elsewhere...

The Hill—Union chief warns of job losses from debt-ceiling deal: "Gerry McEntee, president of the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME), said: 'The deal forced upon the White House and the nation represents a form of economic malpractice,' McEntee said in a statement. 'At the least, it will slow economic recovery and impose more joblessness, wage cuts and hardship on America's working families.'"

David Dayen at FDL—Future Congresses Can Change Austerity Terms, But These Democrats Won't: "I don't see these Democrats, who have been parroting the language of austerity so much they have to believe at least some of it, will ever go beyond this agreement. ... The way out of this box is to find different people than the ones currently in office. I don't see any other way around that."

Politico—Matt Damon weighs in on the debt ceiling: "I'm so disgusted, man. ... The wealthy are paying less than they've paid in any time else, certainly in my lifetime. ... It's criminal that like, you know, so little is asked of people who are getting so much; I mean, I don't mind paying more. I really don't mind paying more taxes."

And here's a fun picture lulz.

Open Thread: House Vote on the Raw Deal

Have at it.

The Latest

Via Taegan Goddard:

Since an agreement was reached last night, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) wouldn't say whether she would vote for the proposal or not. However, multiple sources now say she will vote "yes" when the bill comes up for a vote later tonight.

The latest guidance suggests the House vote will be between 6:30 pm and 8 pm ET.

If the bill passes the House, the Senate will vote on the measure tomorrow.

At which point, if it passes the Senate, President Obama can be expected to sign it into law tomorrow.

We need the second coming of FDR to usher in another New Deal. Instead, we've got FML and the Raw Deal.

Close, but no cigar.