The final Triple Crown jewel is up for grabs tomorrow afternoon at Belmont Park in New York. But for a half of a horse face at Churchill Downs, Shackleford may have been coming into this race as a legit Triple Crown contender. Shackleford will be back to run again, as will his nemesis, Animal Kingdom. There is a significant difference regarding this race as it is the longest distance of any of the Triple crown races, measuring a robust 1 1/2 miles.That being said, we don't know if this will be Shackleford's race. The horse set a sprinter's pace at the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, and was losing steam to other late charging horses at the finish line in both of those shorter races. We also noticed the fire and intensity with which Shackleford came into the Preakness gate. He was so sweaty and worked up, we thought he may break and just run amok through the infield. Not only will the distance be longer, but the heat will be more extreme unless rain materializes. Shack also drew the far outside gate, which will make his attempt to set the pace even more difficult. Animal Kingdom has been established as the clear favorite at 2-1 due to his pedigree to run well in long races. In fact he came from near last, well behind, at the Preakness and damn near stole the show. However, if rain materializes things may change as AK did not adjust well to turf being flung back up at him, and we don't think a wet track would be to his benefit.
If we had to think outside the box for this race, we may consider a horse such as Nehro who has run consistently well in his preparation races, and was the KD runner-up. Nehro did not run the Preakness, which may suggest fresher legs. Mucho Macho Man has been a sentimental favorite all season, and one must consider he is the youngest horse in the field, still rounding into full form. the long track may be the tonic that brings home the bacon this time in New York. MMM will still be a bit of a wild card as he will have a new jockey aboard this race. We would like to think Master of Hounds could contend, but we don't like his Gate 1 post position, and he has traveled around quite a bit this year.
So those are the ones we consider most legitimate. However, if the track is muddy, or there is jostling and bumping out of the gates, a long shot could take the win. We like Nehro to win, Animal Kingdom to place and Mucho Macho Man to show. The 'fun' second ticket would be an across-the-board bet on Master of Hounds, who is getting around 10-1 early. Bottom line is enjoy the beauty and grace of these majestic animals as they go a longer distance. If it really rains, bet the mortgage on the real long shot pictured above-Mr. Scuba Ed!! Television coverage is on NBC between 5-7 p.m. ET, with post time scheduled for promptly at 6:35.